YES On Prop 30

Sri Lanka’s economy is bouncing back after the 2022 economic crisis. Inflation has dropped from 69.8% in September 2022 to single digits by mid-2023. This shows a positive change in the country’s finances.

Smart money policies and reforms have helped stabilize the exchange rate. The IMF program has also supported the economic recovery. As a result, the economy grew in the last two quarters of 2023.

Official reserves increased to US$3.0 billion by the end of 2023. This is a big jump from US$500 million at the end of 2022. The Sri Lankan rupee also gained 10.8% in value during 2023.

The economy is stabilizing faster than expected. This has improved the short-term growth outlook. Experts now predict 4.4% growth in 2024.

These trends show the Sri Lankan economy’s strength. They also prove that government and central bank measures are working well.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Inflation Peak in 2022

Sri Lanka faced a severe economic crisis in 2022. The country defaulted on its debt due to unsustainable levels and depleted reserves. Multiple factors caused this crisis, including poor economic management and structural weaknesses.

The economy shrank by 7.8% in 2022 and 7.9% in early 2023. Tourism, a key industry, collapsed during the crisis. This led to widespread job losses and shortages of essential goods.

The country experienced power cuts lasting up to 15 hours daily. This further strained the already struggling economy and affected daily life.

Factors Contributing to the Economic Crisis

Several factors contributed to Sri Lanka’s economic crisis, including:

• Macroeconomic mismanagement
• Long-standing structural weaknesses
• Exogenous shocks
• Unsustainable debt levels
• Depleted reserves

The Ceylon Electricity Board and Petroleum Corporation faced huge losses. They needed government help and loans from state banks to survive. The government had to support state banks with increased tax revenue.

Inflation Reaching Record Highs in 2022

Inflation in Sri Lanka peaked at 69.8% in September 2022. This caused the rupee to lose 81.2% of its value against the US dollar. Household budgets suffered due to tax hikes, price increases, and income losses.

Real wages fell by 16.9% in the private sector between 2021 and 2024. In the public sector, they dropped by 22% during the same period.

Year	Inflation Rate	Currency Depreciation
2022	69.8%	81.2%
2023 (August)	4%	11% appreciation

Rising fuel and electricity prices hurt households. Higher taxes affected individuals and businesses, increasing production costs. The government suspended imports to stabilize the economy. However, key sectors still lacked cost-reflective pricing.

Government Reforms and Policy Adjustments

Sri Lanka’s government has taken action to stabilize the economy amid a severe crisis. They’ve implemented reforms focusing on fiscal consolidation, revenue measures, and expenditure control. These efforts aim to set the stage for economic recovery.

Key measures include prudent monetary policy, domestic debt restructuring, and structural reforms. The government has also prioritized revenue measures to address the country’s fiscal challenges.

Fiscal Consolidation Measures

The budget deficit grew from Rs. 1,244 billion to Rs. 1,614 billion from January to September. To address this, the government introduced cost-reflective utility pricing and new revenue measures.

These efforts have shown positive results. Total revenue increased from Rs. 1,448 billion to Rs. 2,110 billion in the same period.

Monetary Policy Stance and Interest Rates

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has adopted a prudent monetary policy. The Standing Deposit Facility Rate decreased from 14.50% to 10.00% by October’s end.

These adjustments have helped moderate inflation. The Consumer Price Index dropped from 66.0% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023.

The commercial bank average weighted new lending rate was 12.67% at April’s end. This indicates a gradual transmission of monetary policy changes.

Structural Reforms in Key Sectors

The government has started reforms to boost long-term growth and resilience. These focus on improving the business environment and strengthening the financial sector.

Infrastructure development is also a key area of investment. The IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout package has been crucial in supporting these reforms.

Indicator	2022	2023
Inflation (Point to Point) – Consumer Price Index (2013=100)	66.0%	1.5%
Unemployment Rate	4.6% (Q2)	5.2% (Q2)
Budget Deficit (Jan-Sep)	Rs. 1,244 billion	Rs. 1,614 billion
Total Revenue (Jan-Sep)	Rs. 1,448 billion	Rs. 2,110 billion

Inflation Drops to Single Digits by Mid-2024 After Peaking in 2022

Sri Lanka’s inflation rate has steadily declined since its record highs in 2022. By mid-2024, it dropped to single digits. This decrease is due to government reforms, monetary policy changes, and improved supply conditions.

The World Bank projects Sri Lanka’s economy to grow by 4.4% in 2024. This growth is expected to be driven by industrial and tourism sectors.

Gradual Decline in Inflation Rates

Headline inflation in Sri Lanka stayed low throughout 2024. This was helped by price adjustments and currency appreciation. Overall PCE inflation was 2.3% year-over-year in August 2024.

Core PCE inflation stood at 2.7%. CPI inflation data showed 2.6% growth in August 2024. This was a big drop from the 8.9% peak in 2022.

Factors Contributing to the Moderation of Inflation

Several factors have helped moderate inflation in Sri Lanka. Improved supply conditions have greatly impacted inflation outcomes. Weak private consumption has also kept inflation in check.

Currency appreciation has played a role in reducing inflationary pressures. Household disposable incomes remained low, contributing to subdued demand.

Inflation Measure	August 2024	Peak (Year)
Overall PCE	2.3%	6.5% (2022)
Core PCE	2.7%	3.7% (2023)
CPI	2.6%	8.9% (Peak)
Housing	5.4%	–
Core (ex-housing)	2.1%	–

Impact on Cost of Living and Consumer Spending

The drop in inflation rates has positively affected Sri Lanka’s cost of living. As prices stabilize, households should see improved purchasing power. However, private consumption recovery is likely to be slow.

Disposable incomes are still affected by the economic crisis. The government’s ongoing reforms and efforts to attract foreign investment should support growth.

These measures are expected to improve living standards in the coming years. Economic growth and stability remain key goals for Sri Lanka’s future.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s economic recovery depends on implementing crucial policies. Recent progress is encouraging, but the country’s stability remains fragile. Limited buffers leave Sri Lanka vulnerable to risks like insufficient debt restructuring and policy uncertainty.

The government can boost the economy by implementing comprehensive structural reforms. These should focus on fiscal management, financial sector, and social assistance. Reforms in state-owned enterprises and trade can also help attract investment.

Policymakers must balance short-term measures with long-term changes. Building resilience through robust buffers is crucial. This can help Sri Lanka withstand future shocks and create a more stable economy.

By addressing these issues, Sri Lanka can increase investor confidence. This can lead to fresh capital inflows and sustainable growth. Ultimately, these efforts can help reduce poverty in the medium term.

Sri Lanka faces its worst economic collapse since 1948. The country’s financial woes have led to sky-high inflation and depleted foreign reserves. Essential goods are scarce, and basic commodity prices have soared.

The crisis has sparked nationwide protests and resulted in Sri Lanka’s first sovereign debt default. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe admitted in parliament that the economy had collapsed.

Political turmoil and poor economic choices have worsened the situation. The Sri Lankan Rupee hit a record low of LKR 368.50 against the US dollar in November 2022.

This represents a 555% annual depreciation. By May 24, 2023, the currency had improved to LKR 305.00. However, economic recovery remains a distant goal.

The country’s heavy reliance on foreign debt and dwindling reserves have contributed to the crisis. Policy missteps have also played a role. These factors have left Sri Lankans bearing the brunt of economic hardship.

Background of Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis

Sri Lanka’s economic crisis has been brewing for over a decade. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio has been rising since 2010. Foreign debt skyrocketed from $11.3 billion in 2005 to $56.3 billion in 2020.

The debt as a percentage of GDP jumped from 42% in 2019 to 119% in 2021. This massive debt, along with policy confusion and political turmoil, led to economic collapse.

The Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka warned about economic risks in 2014. However, the government ignored these economic warnings. Political chaos in 2018 made things worse.

A new government in 2019 scrapped the Central Bank Bill. This bill aimed to free the bank from political meddling and stop money printing.

Mounting Debt and Dwindling Reserves

Sri Lanka’s foreign currency reserves have fallen drastically. They dropped from $7.6 billion in late 2019 to $250 million in early 2022. The country owes $7 billion to China and $1 billion to India.

Sri Lanka faces a yearly deficit of $3 billion due to import-export imbalance. This has made it hard for the country to pay its debts.

Year	Foreign Debt (US$ billion)	Foreign Debt as % of GDP
2005	11.3	–
2019	–	42%
2020	56.3	–
2021	–	119%

In 2019, the government slashed taxes, losing $1.4 billion in yearly revenue. This put more strain on the country’s finances. Sri Lanka’s external debt kept growing, with $8.6 billion due in 2022.

These factors pushed Sri Lanka to the edge of bankruptcy. The country now faces a severe economic crisis.

Causes of Sri Lanka’s Economic Collapse

Sri Lanka’s economy crumbled in 2022 due to several factors. Large tax cuts, excessive money printing, and growing foreign debt were key issues. The Gotabaya Rajapaksa government’s tax cuts slashed revenue and worsened fiscal policies.

To cover spending, the Central Bank printed money at record levels. This ignored advice from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The excess cash led to higher purchasing power and import demand.

As a result, the balance of payments deficit grew. The gap was filled with costly loans from international commercial markets.

Sri Lanka’s Foreign Debt Burden

Sri Lanka’s foreign debt skyrocketed from $11.3 billion in 2005 to $56.3 billion in 2020. It rose from 42% of GDP in 2019 to 119% in 2021. By 2024, external debt reached $37,040 million, 43% of GDP.

The mounting debt and dwindling foreign reserves led to a crisis. In April 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt obligations.

Year	Foreign Debt (USD Billion)	Foreign Debt as % of GDP
2005	11.3	–
2019	–	42%
2020	56.3	–
2021	–	119%
2024	37.04	43%

Credit Rating Downgrade

The economic crisis led to a downgrade in Sri Lanka’s credit rating. International agencies lowered it to default grade. This made it harder for the country to borrow more money.

The credit downgrade worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles. It limited access to global financial markets and increased borrowing costs.

These issues played a major role in Sri Lanka’s 2022 economic collapse. Addressing these problems and implementing reforms is crucial for recovery and future stability.

Sri Lanka Declares Bankruptcy Amidst Severe Economic Crisis in 2022

In 2022, Sri Lanka faced a dire financial situation. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe declared the country “bankrupt” during an unprecedented economic crisis. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to $2.31 billion by February.

Sri Lanka owed around $4 billion in debt repayments that year. This included a $1 billion international sovereign bond due in July. The country struggled to meet these obligations.

Foreign reserve depletion left Sri Lanka with less than a day’s worth of fuel. Schools suspended operations, and citizens faced severe fuel shortages. Food insecurity became widespread due to the economic collapse.

Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt for the first time since 1948. The country spent 9.2% of its GDP on foreign debt payments in 2022 alone.

Inability to Pay Foreign Debt Obligations

Sri Lanka’s total debt burden reached $51 billion. The nation owed about $29 billion from July 2021 to 2026. It couldn’t meet debt repayments, including a $78 million coupon payment on two bonds.

Prime Minister Acknowledges Economic Collapse

Wickremesinghe’s bankruptcy statement highlighted challenges in IMF negotiations. Sri Lanka entered talks as a bankrupt nation, not a developing one. This made economic recovery uncertain and difficult.

The crisis deeply affected Sri Lanka’s 21.8 million people. The UN reported that four out of five people now skip meals. Sri Lanka has South Asia’s second-highest child malnutrition rate, after Afghanistan.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s financial crisis stems from years of economic mismanagement, excessive debt, and global crises. The country’s GDP shrunk by 7.1% in 2022’s first three quarters. Inflation peaked at 70% in September 2022 but dropped to 54% by January 2023.

The government seeks IMF and international aid to tackle the crisis. Sri Lanka owes $51 billion externally, with 13 banks on rating watch negative. It’s among the world’s biggest loan defaulters, making the IMF bailout crucial.

The UN warns of a looming humanitarian crisis in Sri Lanka. About 500,000 more people now depend on aid. The country faces severe shortages of essentials like food, fuel, and medicine.

The financial crisis has pushed many into poverty. Predictions suggest a 10.9 percent poverty rate by 2021, equal to $3.20 per day.

Sri Lanka must prioritize its citizens’ well-being and address the crisis’s root causes. This includes reforms, improving transparency, and working with international partners. Only then can Sri Lanka build a more stable and prosperous future.

Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves have bounced back to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive trend for the nation’s economic stabilization efforts. The recovery in currency reserves is expected to boost the country’s financial stability.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank predict positive growth for Sri Lanka in 2024. They project a moderately optimistic outlook over the medium term. The current account may show a slight surplus.

This surplus is likely due to controlled import growth. The revival of tourism and remittances inflows also plays a key role. These factors are vital for strengthening foreign reserves and improving import coverage.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has supported Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. Their Extended Fund Facility has helped build up foreign reserves. The government’s debt restructuring efforts have also been crucial.

These actions have created a more stable financial environment. They have boosted confidence among investors and international partners.

Economic Recovery and Stabilization

Sri Lanka’s economy is showing signs of recovery. GDP growth is projected to turn positive in 2024. The World Bank forecasts a 2.2% growth rate for 2024.

This recovery is backed by the IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout package. The package aims to stabilize the economy and promote reforms.

Inflation Expected to Remain Benign in Medium Term

Inflation in Sri Lanka has dropped significantly. Year-on-year headline inflation fell to 1.3% in September 2023. It rose to 4.0% by the end of 2023 due to supply factors.

Core inflation also decreased, showing low demand pressures. Inflation may change due to new VAT rules in January 2024. However, it should stay low as demand remains weak.

Current Account Surplus Driven by Tourism and Remittances

Sri Lanka’s current account surplus is growing. This is due to strong tourism and remittance inflows. Tourism arrivals topped 700,000 in the first 14 weeks of 2024.

Remittances increased to $572 million in March 2024. These inflows are vital for the country’s balance of payments and foreign reserves.

The boost in tourism and remittances helps offset the economic damage. The long crisis has hurt household finances and business activity. As the economy stabilizes, confidence is expected to grow.

Indicator	2023	2024 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-3.5%	2.2%
Inflation (Year-end)	4.0%	4.5%
Tourism Arrivals (Jan-Mar)	270,000	700,000
Remittances (March)	$475 million	$572 million

Foreign Reserves Rebound to $5.5 Billion by April 2024

Sri Lanka’s official reserves have shown a remarkable recovery. They rose from $1.9 billion in late 2022 to $5.5 billion by April 2024. This excludes a swap facility from the People’s Bank of China.

The IMF Extended Fund Facility of $2.9 billion has played a key role. Approved in March 2023, it has greatly boosted the country’s reserve position.

Improved Balance of Payments Position

Sri Lanka faces a growing trade deficit due to rising import spending. However, net inflows from the services sector, especially tourism, have helped offset this.

A new e-visa system and the Pekoe Trail are set to boost tourism. These initiatives, backed by the EU and USAID, should improve the balance of payments.

IMF Extended Fund Facility Supporting Reserve Buildup

The IMF Extended Fund Facility has been crucial for Sri Lanka’s reserve buildup. The country’s commitment to economic reforms has secured this vital support.

Sri Lanka continues to work with the IMF and other partners. This collaboration is expected to strengthen its reserve position and enhance economic stability.

Debt Restructuring Efforts Paving Way for Financial Stability

Sri Lanka is negotiating debt restructuring with international bondholders. These talks are key to restoring debt sustainability and regaining market access.

The government is working hard to reach agreements with creditors. These efforts are creating a better environment for economic growth and investment.

Indicator	Value
Foreign Reserves (April 2024)	$5.5 billion
IMF Extended Fund Facility	$2.9 billion
GDP Growth Forecast (2024)	2.6%

Conclusion

Sri Lanka’s economy is looking up. Foreign reserves are expected to reach $5.5 billion by April 2024. This signals a positive shift in the nation’s economic outlook.

The country’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 has been revised to 2.6%. This contributes to the South Asian subregion’s expansion. The subregion is projected to grow by 6.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.

However, risks remain. These include the need for deep debt restructuring and potential reform fatigue. Upcoming elections and the recent economic crisis also pose challenges.

These risks are high in Sri Lanka and other South Asian economies. They face high public debt, weak external reserves, and geopolitical tensions.

Implementing the IMF’s structural reform program is crucial. It will boost investor confidence and attract fresh capital inflows. This will support a stronger economic recovery in the medium term.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has kept the policy rate at 6 percent. Their medium-term inflation target is 5 percent. Private sector credit growth and lower non-performing loans show a stabilizing financial sector.

The current account deficit is narrowing. Foreign exchange reserves now cover over 4 months of projected imports. Sri Lanka’s economic prospects are improving, despite challenges on the road to recovery.

The IMF has given Sri Lanka a $2.9 billion IMF bailout. This will help the country recover from its worst money crisis in 70 years. The approval allows for an initial release of about $337 million.

Sri Lanka’s economy shows signs of recovery under the IMF program. Yet, it remains at risk. Achieving debt stability is still a tough challenge.

The bailout is crucial for managing Sri Lanka’s financial crisis. It will also help implement economic reforms. The funds will be provided in stages over four years.

Sri Lanka aims to restructure its $83.6 billion debt. This includes $41.5 billion in foreign debt and $42 billion in domestic debt. The country plans talks with the Paris Club, India, and China before meeting private creditors.

Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Need for IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka faces its worst financial crisis in recent history. Foreign exchange reserves hit record lows in 2022, leading to a default on its external debt. The economy shrank by 7.8% last year, causing severe shortages of essential goods.

Factors Contributing to Sri Lanka’s Financial Collapse

Several factors led to Sri Lanka’s financial collapse. These include a drop in foreign exchange reserves and heavy reliance on imports. The COVID-19 pandemic also caused a sharp decline in tourism revenue.

Sri Lanka’s debt burden is a major concern. External debt will reach USD 37.5 billion by June 2024, as noted in debt restructuring talks. Government efforts to address the crisis have sparked social unrest.

Inflation soared above 70%, while the Sri Lankan rupee hit record lows. These factors worsened the country’s economic troubles.

Impact of the Crisis on Sri Lankan Citizens

The economic contraction and shortages have deeply affected Sri Lankan citizens. Many struggle to afford basic necessities. Rising costs have pushed more people into poverty.

The crisis has also led to widespread job losses and business closures. These factors have added to the hardships faced by the population.

Year	Economic Growth	Inflation
2022	-7.8%	70%
2023 (projected)	-3.0%	25%

Sri Lanka has turned to the IMF program for help. The government has made tough spending cuts and raised taxes. These actions aim to secure a bailout and set the stage for recovery.

IMF Approves $2.9 Billion Bailout to Stabilize Sri Lankan Economy

The IMF has approved a $2.9 billion bailout package for Sri Lanka. This aims to stabilize the nation’s economy during its worst financial crisis in decades. The 48-month loan program tackles pressing economic challenges like soaring inflation and currency depreciation.

Key Elements of the IMF Bailout Package

The bailout focuses on restoring fiscal sustainability and implementing tax reforms. It also aims to enhance social spending to protect vulnerable citizens. The program targets a fiscal surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2024.

This is a significant improvement from the projected 2022 deficit of 9.8%. The IMF stresses the importance of energy pricing reforms. It also emphasizes strengthening the central bank’s autonomy for data-driven monetary policy.

Conditions Attached to the IMF Assistance

Sri Lanka must secure financing assurances from major bilateral creditors like China, India, and Japan. This ensures debt restructuring and sustainability. The government has committed to implementing an anti-corruption legal framework.

They also aim to improve transparency in tax exemptions. These measures are crucial for restoring fiscal sustainability. They will also help attract private investments back into the country.

Expected Timeline for Disbursement of Funds

The IMF board approved the bailout on March 20. Sri Lanka is set to receive the first tranche of funds soon. As of June 2023, the IMF approved the second review of the bailout.

This brings the total funding to around $1 billion. Successful implementation of reforms could lead to additional funding. It may also attract support from international partners.

Key Economic Indicators	2022	2023 (Projected)
GDP Growth	-7.3%	-8.7%
Inflation Rate	70%	60%+
External Debt	$50 billion+	–

Reforms and Austerity Measures Required by the IMF

Sri Lanka must implement various fiscal reforms to secure the $2.9 billion IMF bailout approved in 2023. These measures aim to address the country’s economic crisis. In 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on $46 billion in foreign debt, causing shortages of essential goods.

Tax and Energy Pricing Reforms

The IMF requires raising taxes, such as increasing the value-added tax from 12% to 15%. The government must also reform energy pricing to align with market rates.

The goal is to boost revenue collection to 15% of GDP by 2025. Currently, it stands at 8%, among the lowest worldwide.

Efforts to Bolster Social Spending and Relief Programs

While implementing austerity measures, Sri Lanka must protect its most vulnerable citizens. The government needs to strengthen social spending and relief programs.

This is vital because the country’s poverty rate has doubled, according to the World Bank. Real wages remain significantly below pre-crisis levels.

Year	Inflation Rate	Debt-to-GDP Ratio
2022	60%	128%
2023	–	–
2028 (projected)	–	100%

Strengthening Anti-Corruption Legal Framework

Sri Lanka must bolster its anti-corruption legal framework to improve governance and transparency. This is crucial for effective implementation of IMF-mandated reforms.

Strengthening anti-corruption measures will help restore public trust in the government’s economic management abilities.

Conclusion

The IMF’s $2.9 billion bailout for Sri Lanka is a crucial step towards economic stability. This 48-month Extended Fund Facility aims to support Sri Lanka’s policies and reforms. It helps the nation recover from its worst financial crisis since independence.

The IMF assistance aims to restore financial stability and promote sustainable growth. It also protects vulnerable citizens. Success depends on effective reforms, international support, and political stability.

Sri Lanka has made progress, with inflation decreasing from 70% to below 2%. Gross international reserves have increased by $1.5 billion. However, revenue gains are falling short of initial projections by almost 15%.

Sustained efforts are needed to meet the IMF’s bailout terms. These include a ban on printing money and specific revenue targets. Sri Lanka must finalize its $41 billion external debt restructuring by mid-September.

The nation must stay committed to reform and sustainable growth. With international support and dedication, Sri Lanka can overcome challenges. This will help build a brighter future for its citizens.

The historic decline of the Sri Lankan rupee against the US Dollar in 2022 marks a crisis. It fell 44.5% against the dollar by August 19, 2022. This drop came amid severe forex shortages and soaring inflation.

The US Dollar hit a high of Rs. 369 between March 7th and May 13th, 2022. This was a big jump from Rs. 304 on March 20th. By November 30th, the rupee had fallen to Rs. 329 against the dollar.

The rupee’s sharp drop of Rs 164.75 against the US Dollar has hurt the economy. It also fell against other major currencies during this time.

The rupee declined against the Indian rupee (40.5%), Euro (37.6%), and pound sterling (37.1%). It also dropped against the Japanese yen (34.3%). These drops made the economic crisis even worse.

Factors Contributing to the Sharp Depreciation of the Sri Lankan Rupee

The Sri Lankan Rupee plummeted against the US Dollar in 2022. Several factors led to this economic crisis. Forex market instability, rising import costs, and inflation put enormous pressure on the currency.

Economic Crisis and Forex Market Volatility

Sri Lanka’s economy faced numerous challenges before the 2022 crisis. The 2018 constitutional crisis and 2019 Easter Sunday attacks weakened the economy. COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 further destabilized it.

The Rupee lost 40% of its value against the dollar in just three months. This happened from February 2022 onwards. Real GDP shrank by 7.1% year-on-year in 2022’s first three quarters.

Surge in Import Costs and Inflation

Inflation, measured by the Colombo CPI (CCPI), hit 70% in September 2022. It slowed to 54% by January 2023. Rising import costs and currency devaluation heavily burdened businesses and consumers.

The exchange rate settled at about 360 Rupee/Dollar in May 2022. This was under the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s FX market guidance.

Year	Total Revenue	Tax Revenue	Total Expenditure and Net Lending	Overall Balance	Primary Balance
2022	2,012	1,751	4,473	-2,460	-895

US Dollar Strength and Currency Shortage

The strong US Dollar and low foreign currency reserves worsened the Rupee’s decline. Gross international reserves (GIR) were about $1.9 billion in December 2022.

The government’s decision to use up reserves before seeking IMF help fueled the economic crisis. This choice left the country with almost no reserves in early 2022.

Impact of the Rupee Depreciation on the Sri Lankan Economy

The Sri Lankan rupee’s sharp fall has shaken the country’s economy. It’s affected living costs, inflation, imports, and debt repayment. On June 20, the rupee hit Rs. 170.56 against the US dollar. This drop has worsened Sri Lanka’s economic troubles.

Rise in Cost of Living and Inflation

The weak rupee has made life costlier for Sri Lankans. In September 2022, inflation hit a record 69.8%. Food prices soared even higher, reaching 94.9%.

The National Consumer Price Index rose 58.9% in June 2022. Meanwhile, the Colombo Consumer Price Index jumped 60.8% in July 2022.

Challenges for Importers and Businesses

Sri Lankan importers and businesses face tough times. The weak rupee has made imports pricier. This hurts companies that rely on foreign goods and materials.

Consumers now pay more, while businesses earn less. Fuel price hikes have also increased the country’s oil import costs.

Strain on Foreign Debt Repayment

By March 2022, Sri Lanka’s government debt hit Rs. 21,696.6 billion. This was up from Rs. 17,589.4 billion in late 2021.

The falling rupee makes foreign debt repayment harder. The debt’s value in rupees has grown. This strains the country’s finances further. Sri Lanka’s external debt reached USD 37.5 billion in June 2024.

Sri Lankan Rupee Depreciates Sharply Against US Dollar in 2022

The Sri Lankan Rupee faced major challenges in 2022. It sharply depreciated against the US Dollar and other currencies. The Central Bank reported a 44.5% drop against the US Dollar by August 19, 2022.

This decline stemmed from the country’s economic crisis and forex market instability. The US Dollar’s overall strength also played a role.

Rupee Depreciation by 44.5% Against US Dollar in 2022

The Rupee hit an all-time low of 372.00 against the US Dollar in May 2022. This sharp fall had wide-reaching effects on Sri Lanka’s economy. It led to higher import costs, inflation, and strain on foreign debt repayment.

Businesses and individuals felt the impact too. Many Sri Lankans worried about the rising cost of living.

Cross Currency Exchange Rate Movements

The Rupee’s decline wasn’t limited to the US Dollar. It also fell against other major currencies during this time. The Central Bank reported drops against the Indian Rupee, Euro, Pound Sterling, and Japanese Yen.

These cross currency exchange rate movements further highlighted Sri Lanka’s economic struggles in 2022.

Currency	Depreciation (%)
US Dollar	44.5%
Indian Rupee	40.5%
Euro	37.6%
Pound Sterling	37.1%
Japanese Yen	34.3%

Conclusion

The Sri Lankan Rupee’s fall against the US Dollar in 2022 fueled the country’s economic crisis. Forex shortages, inflation, and currency movements caused this decline. This led to higher living costs and business challenges.

The crisis caused a 7.8% GDP drop in 2023. Hyperinflation hit 73% in September 2022. The government asked the IMF and World Bank for help to stabilize the economy.

Some positive signs emerged. Reserves grew to US$ 2.6 Billion in July 2023. The IMF approved a US$ 3 Billion bailout program. However, recovery will be slow and difficult.

Sri Lanka must focus on helping its most vulnerable citizens. It also needs to boost competitiveness and attract foreign investment. A well-planned approach is key to overcoming this crisis.